See what’s on the horizon thanks to Atlante’s commodity market performance insights for UK buyers and beyond.
At Atlante, we recognise the importance of providing up-to-date performance data for each of the main commodity markets. That’s why we offer snapshots and explainers that help to keep buyers informed.
2022 has been a rather turbulent year, with both record-breaking sales in UK supermarkets and grocery price inflation at a record high. So where do the main food commodities stand, and where are they headed?
Wheat Production on the Decline
For common wheat, excluding Russia, production has declined in all of the main export regions.
Water shortages are still an issue in Europe and the USA, and winter showings are nearly complete in the Northern Hemisphere. The renewal of the 'wheat corridor' agreement in November has led to a slight pullback in the markets, but price levels are still tense.
Outlook: There may be possible price drops from Q2-2023 due to lower maize prices and imminent new harvests. For upcoming wheat harvests, rainfall will be a crucial factor.
Production of maize has decreased due to ongoing conflict in Ukraine creating supply chain issues, droughts and water shortages adding to the unpredictability of the market.
There are also high input prices driving up the costs of production, and a strong drought risk caused by La Niña.
Outlook: The outlook for maize is dependent on supply shortages being resolved, but there are good production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina. If those forecasts materialise along with the expectation of increased sowings in the USA, things should improve.
Durum Wheat Stock Still Rebuilding
The 22/23 campaign for Durum wheat opened with extremely low stock levels in the EU, North Africa, Canada and the USA, but good North American production has been generating a significant flow of imports into the EU for the past few weeks.
Unfortunately, this will not be sufficient to re-establish a good stock level in the Mediterranean area. Sowings in the EU and North Africa have been facing persistent water shortages, so rainfall in the winter months will be crucial.
Outlook: Durum wheat prices are expected to fall slightly when strong Canadian supply arrives in the EU, but the market will likely remain exposed due to the weather risks on new crops.
Watch this space for more updates on each of the main commodity markets- or get ahead by downloading our full commodities summary here
