Hike in Wheat Prices

Canadian common wheat exports rose nearly 63% on the week to 304,300 mt in the week ended Jan. 16, Canadian Grain Commission data released Jan. 23 showed.

• MY 2021-22 common wheat exports to Jan. 16 reach 5.5 mil mt
• Durum wheat exports for MY 2021-22 to Jan. 16 at 1.2 mil mt
• Canadian wheat export prices fall 4% on month

Common wheat exports for the marketing year 2021-22 (August-July) to date were also sharply lower on the year. From Aug. 1 through Jan. 16, Canada shipped 5.5 million mt of common wheat, down nearly 41% from 9.2 million mt in the same period of MY 2020-21.

Exports of the food grain rose during the week to Jan. 16 as global wheat prices remained weak and demand for Canadian crop increased.

However, exports of durum wheat rose to 11,200 mt in the week to Jan. 16 from 19,600 mt the week before, the data showed.

Durum wheat exports over Aug. 1-Jan. 16 totaled 1.2 million mt, down nearly 53% from the same period of MY 2020-21.

Canada exported a total of 26.4 million mt of wheat in MY 2020-21. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada has estimated the country's wheat exports in MY 2021-22 to fall sharply to 16.1 million mt, while the US Department of Agriculture has forecast Canada's wheat exports at 15 million mt for MY 2021-22.

Canada's wheat exports are expected to be limited in the current marketing year as the exportable surplus is seen tightening, with output at the lowest in more than 14 years due to a warm and dry summer.

In MY 2021-22, Canada is likely to harvest 21.7 million mt of wheat, down sharply from 35.2 million mt the year before, the AAFC said.

The USDA, too, has pegged Canada's wheat output in MY 2021-22 at 21.7 million mt.

Prices shed gains

Export prices of Canadian wheat have also seen some volatility amid choppy trade in the past two weeks, traders said. Despite the recent rally in exports, Canada's wheat prices have shed around 4% on month due to the expected tightness in supplies, traders said.

The price of 13.5% CWRS wheat FOB Vancouver for 30-45 days forward was assessed at $399.41/mt Jan. 21 and the FOB Vancouver price of 13.5% CWRS wheat for 45-60 days forward at $400.51/mt, both down $3.21/mt day on day, S&P Global Platts data showed.

Some traders expect exports of the high-protein content wheat to increase in the coming months as premium quality wheat supplies from Australia are seen tightening. The expected increase in shipments may also help the price of the commodity recover in the near term, traders said.

Learn more about how we source wholesale pasta for the UK market. 

This article first appeared in S&P Global