Commodities Bulletin #8

With a focus on the major commodities markets as a buying strategy, the egg market has seen a stabilisation in prices at record highs.

The egg market continues to be characterised by a substantial supply shortage, stiff demand and prices at record levels, which have broken the upward price trend since the beginning of March.

• Several factors with bearish potential do stand out:

The declines affecting feed prices, especially in the EU. The recent strengthening of the euro against the dollar and bearish short-term fundamentals on wheat are also transmitting weakness to corn and oilseeds.

• A more relaxed energy environment: the average price of natural gas in April was 60% lower than it was in April 2022.
  
  
• Currently, the seasonality of consumption and production and decreases in production costs are expected to drive price quotations which, at average levels, will remain higher than in 2022.
  
  
• The market still remains undersupplied. As at February 2023:
  - Exports -19% compared to February 2022.
  - Imports +93% compared to February 2022.
  - Demand, which is already seasonally buoyant, shows a good level of robustness, with eggs representing one of the cheapest of the noble proteins, despite inflation and limited economic growth.
  
  
• On the issue of bird flu, the development of vaccinations continues to be monitored, with France in the forefront having already ordered 80 million doses.