In February 2023, the World Processing Tomato Council estimated the global 2023 crop of tomatoes (for processing) to be 41.8 million metric tons (m MT), up +10% vs 2022 which ended at 38.0m MT.
The main expected growth drivers are California (11.3m MT vs 9.5m MT) and China (7.3m MT vs 6.2m MT). Weather conditions in both these areas are proving to be challenging and expectations are no longer quite so positive.
Italy, Spain and Portugal are the biggest contributors in Europe. Estimated volumes are:
▪ Italy: 5.7m MT vs 5.5m MT in 2022 (+3.6%). Water reserves are low, particularly in the north, and represent a major concern.
▪ Spain: 2.6m MT vs 2.1m MT in 2022 (+23.8%). This is still well below 2021 volumes of 3.2m MT. The 2yr deficit is primarily due to unprecedented drought in Spain’s second largest tomato growing area: Andalucia.
▪ Portugal: 1.4m MT vs 1.3m MT in 2022 (+7.7%).
World production in 2022 decreased by -3% vs 2021, worsening the market situation and increasing the gap between supply and demand. Forecast global production for crop 2023 is +10% vs 2022. This will narrow the gap but forecasts suggest it will not be enough to close it.
This supply/demand gap is symptomatic of the global challenges in producing and contracting of canned tomatoes throughout the supply chain caused by a multitude of factors: less available lands (permanent crops have grown); water scarcity; competition from alternative crops; long-term impact of low prices paid to farmers in the 2016-2019; and huge input cost increases in 2022 and 2023.
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