Commodities Bulletin #8

• Robusta: Robusta coffee quotations on average increased by 14% between March and April, reaching their highest level since 2011. Sustained demand and limited supply have supported quotations. In response to restrictive monetary policies and inflation, International demand for coffee, tends to shift to the Robusta variety, which is cheaper than the Arabica variety. There are particular concerns on the supply side about the upcoming harvest 23 24 in Indonesia, third largest producer global producer of Robusta, affected by excessive rainfall and in Brazil where production declines are expected

• Arabica: The deterioration in supply is the main driving factor in a context of extremely low stocks. In Colombia, at a cumulative level (Oct-Apr), production and exports are still down by 11% and 15% respectively compared to the same period last year. In Brazil, supply also remains tight, down 17% compared to April 2022. There is still uncertainty about the impact of weather conditions on yields for the next harvest, given the recent rains and the increased likelihood of the El Nino phenomenon.

In anticipation of the Brazilian harvest and weak Colombian and Indonesian supply, the market remains highly risky and volatile, with limited and uncertain bearish potential.